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In Graber's case

Karl Graber says the crisis in the spectrum was due to the intellectual ideas of interventionism by Keynes (Keynesian consensus). Briefly, the thesis that the expansionary monetary policy to the U.S. and Europe have led to the crisis. One should not be surprised if the monetary expansion has led to misallocation. It relies on the economic theory of Karl Graber of the Austrian School. Not lax regulation of financial markets but expansionary monetary policy was the cause of the crisis.

I'm not convinced.

was true that monetary policy in the United States shortly before the crisis easily - ex post, it is not entirely clear, as the timely to be determined. There are more than a Taylor rule (see ) that give more definite answers. For Europe, an excessively loose monetary policy before the crisis are more likely to be excluded. Moreover, the crises in Iceland, Ireland and Spain have no fiscal crisis but primarily crises of the banking system.

The Austrian business cycle theory in its popular variant argues that easy money follow to misallocation and leads to crises. This is where the assessment of other entrepreneurs in this school rätselhalft something, like Bryan Kaplan says:

Why does Rothbard think businessmen are Sun incompetent at forecasting government policy? He credits them with entrepreneurial foresight about all market-generated conditions, but curiously finds them unable to forecast government policy, or even to avoid falling prey to simple accounting illusions generated by inflation and deflation ... Particularly in interventionist economies, it would seem that natural selection would weed out business people with such a gigantic blind spot.

The irrationality of the entrepreneur is a sign that money is not neutral. John Quiggin argues

There's an obvious implication about the (sub) optimality of market outcomes here, though more obvious to a generation of economists for whom arguments about rational expectations are second nature than it was 100 years ago. If investors correctly anticipate that a decline in interest rates will be temporary, they will not evaluate long-term investments on the basis of current rates. So, the Austrian story requires either a failure of rational expectations, or a capital market failure that means that individuals rationally choose to make 'bad' investments on the assumption that someone else will bear the cost. And if either of these conditions apply, there's no reason to think that market outcomes will be optimal in general. Karl Graber

confused a lot when he points to the expansion of money supply in the crisis. This expansion of balance sheets and monetary base was substantially to prevent a bank aid package to a crash of the banking system. At the latest after Lehman Brothers, the interbank trading had collapsed. In order to prevent bank runs has also eased quantitatively. To date, the inter-bank market has not really recovered, even as the facilities and excess reserves for the banks attractive. The only the penalty were introduced to stimulate lending, the Swedish National Bank. It is thus managed a comprehensive banking crisis averted. to say now that this will lead to inflation and a new crisis is strange. Because of the drowning has swallowed a little brackish water, the rescuer is not to blame for the following stomach upset.

But still inclined seems to me that Graber's argument line when it comes to the condemnation of the "Keynesian consensus" goes. First Fed with its interest rate policy is to blame for the crisis and inflation, and then suddenly it's suddenly only to fiscal policy. Here, the description of the problem of the "Keynesian consensus" is correct in principle. The Keynesian consensus has costs. No question. A too-activist fiscal policy in relatively calm period is associated with a fiscal crisis of the State.
But not in recent years. The following graphic (can not find more recent) shows the Konjukturzyklen in the "Keynesian" phase and in the vorkeynesianischen phase for the United States. It is striking that in boom and bust vorkeynesianischen the regular phase and the beginning of the series is much grayer than the end of the series. This may have structural causes, but apparently was the phase of the "traditional consensus" associated with higher economic costs.



If Graber writes:

So it is no exaggeration, the "Keynesian consensus" for a chimera and the actual cause of the current financial and economic crisis to keep because it founding economic policy at the wrong end attaches, aufzäumt so the horse from the tail ago. The opposite would be true, what about the Wiener (or Austrian) school of economics 80 years ago knew with certainty. In the production of goods and services, ie on the supply side, are set be included where the ups and downs of economic cycles, this is unavoidable, kept small and the emergence and bursting of large bubbles (crisis that is) is to be prevented, because "if there were no find buyers and workers do not work, then that can only have one reason: The specified prices and wages are too high. Who wants to sell his goods or labor, must reduce his claim until he has found a buyer. This is the means by which the market directs the production to the tracks on which it can serve the needs of the consumer best. "(Ludwig von Mises, 1940)

he lost me for good. In Austria and Germany, the crisis was caused primarily a crisis of the export-oriented industry, a decline in world trade. If Germany and Austria now stand as good, this has nothing to do with changes in the commodities produced, wage reductions or price reductions, but so that the global economy has started. Had to reduced working hours, to give government loan guarantees, change in bankruptcy law, etc.?

Graber's proposal to lower corporate taxes in half and tax credits for SME einzuführten I been able to gain little. If tax cuts, balanced, then for all. For if, as proposed, is the only fiscal policy - hold in the other direction. The same mechanism the graves of the "Keynesian consensus" is also criticized for such action. Thus, the argument is a primarily ideological. Moreover, it is because of the confusion of that little incentives as a stimulus. There is little evidence that lower taxes speed up structural change or the "animal spirits" fuel .* Most businesses are not entrepreneurial in a sense, Schumpeter (innovation), not even in a Kirzner'schen sense (arbitrage). Cheaper for the general public as guaranteed loans, which are also awarded only to companies carrying out the investment.

Next week there is an answer from Stephan Schulmeister. I do not think that this will please me better.


* So I've probably finally outed as the "Keynesian basic type".

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& Trichet, the announced interest rate adjustment and reform

this morning reading the newspaper I almost swallowed the coffee. Trichet said that interest rates should rise ..... The announced rate hike of the ECB may perhaps be understandable if the ECB would be the old German Federal Bank, the anticipatory would prevent an overheating of the German economy through a D-mark appreciation. But the euro is not the D-Mark, the euro area, not Germany, and imported inflation is not appropriate in the current situation to announce a policy of restraint. Why is not a good idea is argued Kantoos Economic s in a post worth reading, entitled "Is Trichet out of his mind .....". Read oneself, only the Zusammfassung:

1. nomimale The gross domestic product is below trend growth and falling!
2. The 2% inflation target is a heterogeneous EU too narrow. A higher target would be appropriate.
3. inflation driven by global demand or adjustments to new equilibrium is for countries with weak demand, no reason to take a restrictive monetary policy should not second-round effects are visible.
4. Who wants to have a hard money policy as soon as possible, should the monetary policy in a first step make very aggressive expansionary. It cited Kantoos Friedman, who said that low interest rates does not indicate a bargain, but to show that money was tight.
   
5. The European credit crisis is not over.

following graphic illustrates the findings of Economics Kantoos weak demand: the black line represents the nominal GDP is the euro zone (the quantities on the left axis), the gray line is the trend growth and the green line, the deviation from the nominal Wachtum nominal trend growth in% (right axis). The green line shows that the gap does not become a trend now but bigger.


closes Against this picture of the big macroeconomic development Kantoos that a purely inflation-oriented monetary policy (price stability), the crisis worse can:

If there is a slight chance for solving this crisis without even more damage, the peripheral countries need to grow ! How insanely incompetent do you have to worry about to be globally driven energy prices in a situation like this?

said in an interview with the press Peter Brandner that rising prices for food and oil are primarily real economic causes and means that there are no signs of strong inflation.

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IVD Press Note PN 11 Prices of mid-terrace houses: significant increase in Bavaria trend, Upper Bavaria value is unchanged

prices for mid-terrace houses: significant increase in Bavaria trend, Upper Bavaria value unchanged

In Munich, only a moderate increase
The market research institute of the IVD South eV, the price trend for mid-terrace houses (existing properties, good quality of living, about 120 m² living space, the price includes a garage) was investigated for Upper Bavaria. The decline in the spring of 2009 (312.000 € / contract) was followed both in the fall of 2009 (317.000 € / contract) and in the spring of 2010 (336.000 € / object) an increase in prices. "In the fall of 2010," said Prof. Stephen Kippes, director of the IVD market research institute in Munich, "was the value compared to the spring of 2010 constant. The Bayern value increased contrast compared to the spring value by as much as 4.4%. Munich, although keeps on growing, but at 1.0%, there is also only a moderate rise in prices. "
Looking at price developments in recent years, the prices for mid-terrace houses in Upper Bavaria showed in the spring of 2005 with € 299,000 / contract to the lowest value in the ten-year review. From autumn 2005, prices again, and also the decline in spring 2009 is overcome.

Also in Bavaria, the trend for prices to do this type of object since the fall of 2005 (251.000 € / contract) a slight upward trend. The current value is determined With 286,000 € / object at the highest level within the last ten years.

covered in Munich, the values for mid-terrace houses from the inventory from the fall of 2005 (400.000 € / object) back steadily. Also, the current value is € 485,000 / contract again the highest in the last ten years.

Overall, noted that mid-terrace houses in metropolitan areas traditionally subject to much less variation than, say, multi-storey buildings. This is the oft- scarce ground based, thereby offering in mid-terrace houses can expand only very limited.

nice day

Mark Kestler

http://www.kestler-immobilien.de/

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Schellhorn is angry that nothing goes on. An interesting supermarket. This could be a lot. But with an argument I believe Schellhorn is wrong. He argues implicitly (at least I've understood) that the strength of the social partner agreed to reform in the government. Because the social partnership blocking any reform.

I just do not think so. I believe that the disorientation and to reform in the grand coalition points to a weakness of the social partnership. The social partnership can no longer against the spin-verdoktorten party grandees enforce or is even gespinnt. The permanent campaign through the media is even worse than to reform in (military service, schools ... you name it). But that's another story ...

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anger unions and welfare

Gilles Saint-Paul says in an interesting discussion at the Economist to unions: unions generally reduce the welfare . Gilles Saint-Paul argues on the basis of textbook economics, that trade unions as cartels . Act Due to the excessive wage settlements lose unemployed and workers in industries which are not unionized. This has subsequently reduced living standards. This is evident across the wage differentials for work of similar skill across sectors. These inequalities are large and depend in part on the bargaining power of unions.

In general, unions are stronger in larger firms with market power and monopoly rents can be a part of the levy. This consequently leads to even higher prices and welfare losses. Unions, therefore, play a positive role, particularly in competitive industries, where only low Renten abgeschöpft werden können. In diesem Fall können Gewerkschaften zur Strukturierung von Lohnverhandlungen beitragen.

und in seinen Worten:

Given that unions tend to reduce the welfare of consumers in general, including some poor and precariouslypositioned workers, and increase the welfare of some specific categories of workers who are relatively well-off, it is hard to argue that unions play a useful redistributive role.
(....)
Unions do not provide a countervailing force to the supposed power of big business. Whenever big business gets rents from monopoly power, unions often manage to share some of those rents (this explains why unions are more present in concentrated industries like automobiles, as opposed to, say, retail trade). This benefits the employees of big business, and it has indeed been shown that these employees enjoy higher wages and greater fringe benefits. But by raising labour costs it further adds to the harm done to consumers (and workers in the competitive sector) by the monopoly power of business. In addition to being too high because firms collude, the price is also too high because employees collude. Furthermore, the interests of the union and their employers are convergent whenever they deal with the outside world: both want to increase the revenue that the firm or the industry can extract through lobbying activities. To the extent that union leaders provide additional voices, unionisation adds to the lobbying power of an industry. This has

Gilles Saint-Paul, of course, right. Insider-outsider problems are central problems of trade unions and trade union left, but also from industry associations of the industry.

But this is more to add. Unions determine social norms of fair pay and play this role in the redistribution debate. In particular, if the policy of trade unions, the unemployed and unorganized workers taken into account. But who else but interest groups of children would be for health insurance, pensions, job security, cheap housing, education policy and to use other Erungenschaften democratic market economy, the Mark Thoma would like to respond to the state. A strong ideal state of the social market economy, so to speak, the apolitical in the best interest of the general public is. The public's understanding of some economists confuses me sometimes. For if such a state is exactly Act so then I need unions and similar interest groups. Or not? Any ideas?

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geek ... Inflation expectations

krugman is convinced that romer is too cute:

And really, I do not think the inflation hawks are relying on models. They're going with their good: eek! inflation! printing money! eeevil! This is not a rational discussion.

The implied inflation expectations, which are published by the Cleveland Fed are, at least in February 2011 is not significantly different from those in February 2010. The long-term inflation expectations have fallen rather than risen. But not at the level of 2009 (the height of the crisis). Unfortunately, I have no data for the € ... Guess that inflation expectations are not significantly different.